"Imagine what organizations would look like if they were redesigned to reduce [[noise]]. Hospitals, hiring committees, economic forecasters, government agencies, insurance companies, public health authorities, criminal justice systems, law firms and universities would keenly alert to the problem of [[noise and strive to reduce it]]. [[Noise audits]] would be routine: they might be undertaken every year.
Leaders in organizations would use [[algorithms]] either to replace human judgment or to supplement it in far more areas than they do today. People would breakdown complex judgments into simpler [[mediating assessments]]. They would know about [[decision hygiene]] and follow it's prescriptions. [[Independent Judgments]] would be elicited and [[aggregated]]. [[Meetings]] would look very different; discussions would be more structured. An [[outside view]] would by systematically integrated into the decision process. Overt disagreements would be both more frequent and [[more constructively resolved.]]
The result would be a less noisy world. It would [[save a great deal of money]], improve public safety and health, increase [[fairness]], and prevent many [[avoidable errors]]. Our aim in writing this book has been to draw attention to this opportunity. We hope that you will be among those who seize it."
Chapter18 Superforecasters- Better judges, produces better judgements
Chapter 19 Delay intuition - Sequencing information
Chapter 20 Universally applicable - Independent Judgement and Aggregation.
Chapter 21 Algorithms - example Apgar Scoring Guidelines - Newborns
Chapter 22 Rank, don’t rate - but be careful
Chapter 24 Structure / Sequence Decisions - Formal / Not informal
Chapter 25 mediating assessments protocol - For Complex decisions